Democrats’ Senate Race Poll Numbers Blues

By Rod Pennington

The theory is when seeking re-election, if an incumbent is below 50% in the polls on Labor Day they are in serious, serious trouble.  The logic is since you’re already well-known by your constituents and if more than half of them don’t like you it is time to start cleaning out your desk and filling out the form to get your mail forwarded.

With President Obama and Congressional Democrats looking more and more each day like they are in way over their heads, this is shaping up as a November to remember for the Republicans. Nearly every senate seat current held by a Democrat is in play this year and many Senator Seats considered “safe” for the Democrats on Memorial Day are now tossups or worse.

Here is a list of the “Under 50%” club for incumbent Democratic senators based on the average polling data compiled by RealClearPolitics.com.

Dead Man Walking

• Sen. Blanche Lincoln 30.8% and trails by 28%
• Sen. Barbara Boxer 43.5% +3.5 but within the margin of error
• Sen. Michael Bennet 43.5% -2.5 but within the margin of error
• Sen. Russ Feingold 45.3 +1.0 but within the margin of error
• Sen. Harry Reid 47.3 + 1.3 but within the margin of error
• Sen. Patty Murray 47.8 + 1.8 but within the margin of error

If this turns into a “wave” election like we had in 2006 or 1994 all of these senators could lose. Being a protest election, the late deciders will likely break heavily for their opponents.

Open Seats with no Incumbent in the Race

The Good News for Democrats

Conn. D- Richard Blumenthal 48.5% is +8.5% on WWE executive Linda McMahon.

In a stunner D-Gov. Joe Manchin in a recent poll is under 50% and only leads R-John Raese by +6.0%. With Manchin enjoying a 70% approval rating for his job as West Wirginia’s governor, this poll is a real eye opening. If Raese were to win this would be an upset on par with Sen. Scott Brown taking Sen. Ted Kennedy’s old seat. For this to happen, the wave would have to be a tsunami. But this year anything is possible.

The Bad News

Every Other Open Seat Could Go to the GOP

• Florida: R-Marco Rubio +2.4%
• Illinois R-Mark Kirk +1.4%
• Ohio R-Rob Portman +3.7%
• Delaware R-Mike Castle +13.0%
• Kentucky R-Rand Paul +5.5%
• Missouri R-Roy Blunt +6.7%
• New Hampshire R-Kelly Ayotte +8.0%
• Pennsylvania R-Pat Toomey +8.5%
• Alaska R-Joe Miller +8.0%
• Indiana R-Dan Coats +21%
• N. Dakota R-John Hoeven +44%

The thing to watch for in the next few weeks will be which senatorial candidates the Democrats start throwing overboard.  With limited funds, any candidate who is trailing outside the margin of error will be at risk of being orphaned.

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Posted by The Editors on Sep 1 2010. Filed under Featured Stories. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry